How long will the oil? In Vienna, met doomsday prophets to speculate about the approaching Karen Millen
end of the inventories. But the reality is more complicated than the theory of "Peakniks
The program features the world's demise,Karen Millen but Dennis Meadows bored with the subject. The American scientist is a kind expert in matters of the Apocalypse, he has warned 40 years ago in the legendary Report to the Club of Rome Karen Millen Dresses against the limits of growth, and predicted the depletion of raw materials. Now sits the 69-year-old palace in Vienna and Lower Austria scrolls around in the conference brochure. It all seems so familiar to him.
Gather has become the Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas (Aspo), an international association of scientists who are inspired by the idea that global oil production will soon be a vertex ("Peak") to achieve - with disastrous consequences for the humanity.Karen Millen Dress It consumes more oil than it promotes violent distribution conflicts were inevitable: Stock market crash, depression, chaos.
Spread "peak oil is nigh," was also a terrifying vision of the annual meeting this week, the president Kjell Aleklett Aspo as a Jehovah's Witness. Once again. The same message he had heard on the Aspo conference six years ago, Meadows says, annoyed. In fact, the "Peakniks", as the skeptics are called, have already anticipated a number of times the head point. In previous scenarios, they dated it to 1998. Later it was called, in 2005 it was ready. One placed the peak precise even on the day on the 24th November 2005. Then again in 2010 it was envisaged that, at the latest.
With seemingly scientific precision to determine the peak oil theorists a date from which you want to go down there - and will always be refuted by reality. In practice, namely, the global oil supply has since grown almost every year still, so far has never occurred to the surprise of many a real bottleneck.
Currently Saudi Arabia is pumping as much oil from the desert sand like never before. In the U.S., sources on the stock. Was currently too much rather than too little support for components in commodity expert at Commerzbank. Your colleagues at Citigroup to go even further: They already announced the "death of the peak oil hypothesis."
A thesis from the fifties
The concept dates back to the fifties, a U.S. geologist named Marion King Hubbert put it. Thus, the course of oil production is always equal to a bell curve: First, they climb up on a plateau, then falls off again, as inexorable as predictable. The problem is that reality is more complicated.
For example, take the price that must be achieved for a barrel oil, a decisive influence on the flow. The higher the listing, the more likely it is worth the effort to find even in remote areas for the raw material, for example, or in the deep sea in the Arctic. And now the growing supply of oil.
New technologies are used to hoist the flow rate to a level that was unimaginable before. Engineers use the so-called Fracking, which was previously used only for gas production, one now for a better exploitation of oil wells: Under high pressure liquid is injected, it produces deep fissures in the rock, thereby releasing additional oil.
Thanks to this procedure, the United States have become the world's fastest growing oil-producing region. In the State of North Dakota, the production within two years has doubled.
Such developments certainly impress Aspo President Aleklett little. He holds for Fracking overestimated, for a hype that will put itself soon. In general it is the prediction occurred and reached peak oil in 2006 was, at least what regards the volume of conventional extraction methods, that is, without the tar sands oil from Canada, for example, or just the Fracking oil from North Dakota.
This statement is perplexing, because in the history of oil production processes that were initially as unconventional, usually very quickly were common. That was in the seventies, the promotion in more than 300 meters water depth hardly imagine today it is routine.
The veteran Meadows has certainly had enough of the debate, when is going exactly to the peak. The crucial and incontrovertible but is that oil supplies are finite and decrease. He therefore considers it important to develop strategies that can look like a world with less fossil fuel.
Meadows speaks from bitter experience. 40 years ago, the Club of Rome was also limited to just shout: "The trouble is near," says the scientist. Result: "Today, the Club of Rome is irrelevant."